Current Projects

The health and social outcomes associated with injecting drug use are poorly understood in Australia. The Melbourne Injecting Cohort Study (MIX) will collect baseline data from a large cohort of young injecting drug users in Melbourne, establishing a framework for investigating the long-term outcomes of injecting drug use using record linkage. The work will be important for improving understanding of dynamic shifts in injecting drug use in response to changes in drug markets. The study began in May 2008, with recruitment of 50 participants in a pilot study of the survey instruments, recruitment and field methods. Recruitment for the pilot, involving 53 participants overall, finished in August. Initial findings from the pilot are that the current interview schedule takes less than 1 hour to complete, participants were comfortable with providing identifying information and that the handheld pocket pc’s and software worked efficiently at collecting data. Methods for data management and storage have been refined in order to minimise the possibility of data loss (data from an additional 5 participants was lost).

Expected completion date: 2010

More information:

pauld@burnet.edu.au

Title: Integration and Implementation Sciences: Providing Concepts and Methods for Synthesising Disciplinary and Practice-based Knowledge and Connecting Research with Practice

Research team: Gabriele Bammer

Overview:

DPMP, like other research programs addressing complex issues, needs effective ways to bring knowledge from different disciplines and from practice to bear. It also requires the most up-to-date techniques for influencing policy and other practice change. Integration and Implementation Sciences provides the necessary concepts and methods and is also intensely involved in their enhancement.

Five primary methods for integrating knowledge have been identified: dialogue-based techniques, particular approaches to modeling, using a guiding vision, building a specific product and developing and using a common metric (such as assigning monetary value, disability-adjusted life-years ie DALYs, or the Ecological Footprint).

In addition, Integration and Implementation Sciences works on four ways of connecting research with policy and practice: effective information provision, co-production of knowledge, engagement in political, policy and practice processes, and advocacy. This is coupled with detailed understanding of how to make change happen.

Effective integration and implementation also require attention to be given to:

Underpinning values and their effects on research and practice,
How issues and problems are framed and boundaries around them set,
How ignorance and uncertainty are dealt with, and
Concepts and techniques for effective collaboration.

The Integration and Implementation Sciences group is based at the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, ANU College of Medicine and Health Sciences, The Australian National University. In developing the Integration and Implementation Sciences field, we collaborate with sister groups on “systemic intervention” (Professor Gerald Midgley and Dr Wendy Gregory at the Institute for Environmental Science and Research (ESR) Ltd in New Zealand) and on “transdisciplinarity” (Professor Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn, Dr Christian Pohl and Dr Christoph Kueffer at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich – ETH-Zurich). We also host an international Integration and Implementation Sciences Network.

The ANU Integration and Implementation Sciences group has six members (Gabriele Bammer, David McDonald, Lorrae van Kerkhoff, Alice Roughley, Peter Deane, Caryn Anderson). Not all are directly involved in or funded by DPMP, but all work on projects that are relevant to enhancing DPMP processes.

Expected completion date: 2011

More information:

http://www.anu.edu.au/iisn/

Title: An analysis of Australian illicit drug policy coordination

Research team: Caitlin Hughes, Michael Lodge and Alison Ritter

Advisor: David McDonald

Overview:

Coordination has become one of the key objectives and mechanisms to delivering effective drug policies in Australia. Since 1985 there have been numerous changes in the governance structures and mechanisms for coordinating the National Drug Strategy. Yet, there has been a dearth of attention to how and where coordination occurs and the capacity of current structures and processes for delivering their desired objectives.

This project aims to examine illicit drug policy coordination through the lens of internationally endorsed good governance principles. We will conduct a literature review of best practice coordination and good governance, devise a tool for measuring the application of good governance principles and undertake a survey of key stakeholders involved in illicit drug policy coordination. In so doing we seek to contribute to debate on the current strengths and weaknesses of national coordination processes and to highlight potential directions for improving Australian illicit drug policy coordination.

Expected completion date: February 2009

More information:

caitlin.hughes@unsw.edu.au

Title: Problem-Oriented and Partnership Policing: LEAPS Evaluation

Research team: Paul Mazerolle, Lorraine Mazerolle, Patricia Ferguson and Simon Jackson

Overview:

The primary aim of the LEAPS initiative is to lower the incidence of drug and alcohol related problems (e.g. violence and incivilities) with the goal of making club and bar environments safer for all patrons. LEAPS embraces harm reduction values and utilises low impact enforcement on licensed premises not complying with mandatory harm reduction measures. A problem-oriented and partnership policing (POPP) initiative, LEAPS purpose is to scan Fortitude Valley for crime and safety problems, analyse the dynamics of problems located, respond to the problems in a relevant and proportionate manner, and assess the outcome of their response in terms of a lasting effect. The DPMP project aims to measure: the impact of partnership policing on place managers’ awareness of community problems and engagement in positive action; perceptions of procedural justice in a site with conflicting policing strategies; patrons’ perspectives on licensed premises lockout and late night safety; the impact of a drug education media campaign on a high risk group; the economic impact of LEAPS (cost-effectiveness analysis); and, the relationship between drug use and attitudes to police. Additionally, upon receiving crime data from the Queensland Police Service we will measure the impact (using interrupted time series analysis) of LEAPS on a series of crime outcomes.

Expected completion date: December 2008

More information:

p.mazerolle@griffith.edu.au

Title: Structural analysis of the Australian heroin drought

Research team: Jonathan Caulkins, Peter Reuter and Martin Bouchard

Overview:

The disruption of the Australian heroin markets that was recognized starting in late 2000/early 2001 was the most severe and prolonged of any documented disruption of a major drug market in a developed country. Before this “drought”, heroin use was associated with the great bulk of drug-related harm in the country, and key indicators such as overdose rates fell precipitously and have never returned to their pre-drought levels. Hence, there is considerable worldwide interest in Australia to understand what caused this singular “success”. The research team has tapped a variety of novel data indicators to develop a coherent empirical argument concerning likely causes, with results being written up as three separate papers: one analysing the causes of this event, a second describing what one would expect to see from a severe market disruption (to avoid a replication of specious arguments and misunderstanding concerning this event), and a third analysing Canada’s heroin markets, which have played a prominent role in the literature arguing that AFP actions could not have been an important driver of the drought.

Expected completion date: November 2008

More information:

alison.ritter@unsw.edu.au

Title: Modelling the Hepatitis C virus: the role of treatment and reinfection

Research team: Alison Ritter and Irmgard Zeiler

Advisors: Jon Caulkins and John Murray

Overview:

It seems clinicians are reluctant to treat injecting drug users for Hepatits C (HCV) given the perceived risk of re-infection. However this risk and its impact on the HCV transmission dynamics are unknown.

We aim to use mathematical modelling to make some statements about the risk of re-infection with HCV among IDUs under some variety of treatment scenarios. Futhermore, we want to investigate the impact on the relatively high rates of “churn” of users in and inbetween Methadone treatment. Different rates of virus transmission and different levels of adherence in these to groups could lead to interesting and unexpected effects of treatment.

To date we have succsessfully developed and parameterized a dynamical model of the disease transmission and did some preliminary analysis on the policy implications that could be deducted from it.

Expected completion date: November 2008

More information:

alison.ritter@unsw.edu.au

Title: Opioid Pharmacotherapy Review

Research team: Alison Ritter and Jenny Chalmers

Consultants: Geoff McDonnell and Mark Heffernan

Advisory group: Nick Lintzeris, Alex Wodak, Richard Mattick, Bob Batey, Tamara Speed

Overview:

The Australian National Council on Drugs (ANCD) commissioned the Drug Policy Modelling Program to undertake a project to determine whether the availability, accessibility and affordability of Australia’s pharmacotherapy programs for the treatment of opioid dependence meet demand. The project has been conducted in two parts:

a qualitative review of the issues associated with the Australian pharmacotherapy program; and
the development of a simulation model, in this case a system dynamics model, of the pharmacotherapy service system that could be used as a tool for policy makers exploring policy options around several issues of concern: dispensing fees, availability of treatment places, potential increases in the population of opioid dependent people and the quality of treatment services.

Expected completion date: October 2008

More information:

j.chalmers@unsw.edu.au

Reducing the Methamphetamine Problem in Australia: Evaluating Innovative Partnerships Between Police, Pharmacies and Other Third Parties

Research team: Lorraine Mazerolle, Matthew Manning, Janet Ransley, Jacqueline Drew, Julianne Webster and Ingrid McGuffog

Overview:

This project will measure the impact of a drug law enforcement initiative, Project STOP, with respect to its impact on suppressing the supply of amphetamines across Queensland and Victoria. Project STOP is a supply side drug law enforcement intervention aimed at disrupting the availability of amphetamines in Queensland and Victoria, thereby increasing the costs and risks associated with manufacturing the drug. The project is disaggregated into nine methodologies, which include: (1) examining law enforcement-led partnership with third parties (including retail pharmacies); (2) a review of existing drug law enforcement policies and procedures to identify current legal provisions that support law enforcement efforts (e.g. mandatory reporting of pseudoephedrine sales); (3) elicit perceptions and attitudes of pharmacists (in Queensland and Victoria) about mandatory reporting of pseudoephedrine sales; (4) understand the nature and characteristics of ‘other’ partnerships (ie. other than pharmacies) that have been formed to combat the methamphetamine problem;(5) evaluate the impact of drug law enforcement partnerships on drug treatment outcome trends; (6) measure the impact of Project STOP on patterns of drug use; (7) conduct an economic analysis of Project STOP; (8) assess the impact of key initiatives, particularly Project STOP, on drug-related crime in Queensland and Victoria; and, (9) explore the diffusion and displacement of crime, and the positive (and negative) side effects of police partnerships with third parties.

Expected completion date: November 2010

More information:

j.drew@griffith.edu.au

Cannabis Diversion Model

Research team: Caitlin Hughes and Alison Ritter

Consultant: Jennifer Badham

Overview:

Drug diversion has become a popular policy intervention used for responding to illicit drug users in Australia. Much of the drug diversion programs focus on cannabis, a drug used by 33% Australians (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, 2008) and that accounts for 74% illicit drug offences (Australian Crime Commission 2006). Drug diversion aims to reduce future drug use (through educating and/or treating drug use), increase the efficiency of the criminal justice system and reduce the costs of responding to drug use. Yet there is limited understanding to date on how to improve the designs of drug diversion systems and to facilitate the best possible outcomes.

This project builds a system dynamics model of cannabis diversion in Australia. It includes all existing responses to cannabis users, through both cannabis diversion and traditional court responses and models their impacts on future crime and the cost to the criminal justice system. In so doing it provides a tool to aid consideration of plausible policy scenarios: what would be the impact of changing the number of cannabis users diverted, the type of programs used, improving the effectiveness of cannabis interventions or removing breach conditions for diversion programs? What types of changes would be most cost-effective? This will enhance the capacity for evidence-based decisions on the design of Australian cannabis diversion systems.

Expected completion date: December 2008

More information:

caitlin.hughes@unsw.edu.au

Developing a model to assess the economic consequences of cannabis policy options

Research team: Marian Shanahan, Rachel Ngui and Alison Ritter

Advisors: Wendy Swift, Rosalie Pacula and Maree Teesson

Overview:

Changes to the status of cannabis, ranging from legalisation through to tougher enforcement of prohibition are frequently posed. To date, the debate has centered on arguments associated with liberty and harm, but not on economic analyses. The aims of this project are to: estimate the current societal costs related to cannabis; and investigate the economic costs and benefits of two alternate policy options in New South Wales. The potential economic benefits of the project reside in the ability to provide governments with information to assist with cannabis policy decisions through:

the direct comparison in economic terms of three different models for the regulation of cannabis;
providing a model for estimating economic costs associated with cannabis which can be applied to other illicit drugs;
improving the evidence-base for policy decision-making in Australia.

Funded by ARC and DPMP

Expected completion date: December 2010

More information:

m.shanahan@unsw.edu.au

A review of Australian public opinion surveys on illicit drugs

Research team: Francis Matthew-Simmons, Stephanie Love and Alison Ritter

Overview:

Public opinion can be an important influence on political decision making. This project aims to identify recent trends in Australian public opinion towards illicit drug issues. We have reviewed existing opinion surveys on illicit drugs, and where possible combined the results in order to gain a sense of the current trends. The issues covered include questions about the perceived harms caused by illicit drugs, attitudes towards drug law reform and government spending, and attitudes towards different interventions. The project will result in a published monograph.

Expected completion date: October 2008

More information:

francis.simmons@unsw.edu.au

Developing a common metric to evaluate policy options (the Policy Outcome Index)

Research team: Alison Ritter

Overview:

DPMP is concerned with evaluating drug policy. In the main, DPMP is using models or simulations, as a primary method to evaluate policy options. It is intended that the simulations can derive reasonable and plausible effect sizes for the impacts of different drug policies. However, the models need standardised outcome measures. It is in this context that DPMP is engaged in a project to develop a policy outcome index. The purpose of the DPMP policy outcome index is to compare different policy options and their effects, using a common metric. The method applied for the DPMP Index involves determining an approach to outcomes, identifying all the outcomes, and quantifying them through the application of a social cost framework. Because each drug is different in its prevalence, consumption and most importantly harms, the Index developed by us is specific to individual drugs. In addition we distinguish between dependent and non-dependent use to manage the large variance in harms associated with patterns of use. The development and use of the DPMP index is an ongoing program of research.

More information:

alison.ritter@unsw.edu.au

Australian drug policy: an overview report on drug use and harms and their relationship to policy

Research team: Alison Ritter and Katrina Grech

Overview:

The goal of the report is to produce an objective analysis of Australian drug policy that provides an accessible account of the Australian situation to date. Hopefully it will become the ‘source’ document for those wanting an overview of the Australian situation. The report will cover (i) the Australian context (socio-eco climate – employment, poverty, social cohesion); (ii) description of drug policy (policies, approaches, spending, structures, public opinion); (iii) prevalence of drug use and harms; and (iv) policy analysis.

More information:

alison.ritter@unsw.edu.au

Public opinion, the media, and illicit drug policy in Australia

Research team: Francis Matthew-Simmons

Overview:

It is often desired that public policy should be based in rationality, and where possible, scientific evidence. However, the realities of democratic politics dictate that many policy decisions also need to be acceptable to a majority of the voting population. Previous research has shown that in many cases, policy decisions do accord with public opinion. This project aims to determine if this is the case regarding illicit drugs in Australia. By examining a number of different case studies (such as the legal status of cannabis, and treatment for heroin dependence) this project will determine if there is any relationship between shifts in public opinion over time and changes in policy, and what the nature of this relationship might be. The project also aims to examine what factors can shift public opinion in the first place, and the extent to which the news media can influence opinion change in Australia.

Expected completion date: June 2010

More information:

francis.simmons@unsw.edu.au

Interactive modelling platform for drug policy problems

Research team: Pascal Perez, Anne Dray and Bohdan Durnota

Overview:

Having developed the agent-based model called SimDrug in Stage One of DPMP, and conducted further policy simulations around policing as represented in SimDrugPolicing and SimHero the modelling team has now begun to use the models in practice with policy makers. These projects focus on developing policy relevant tools for exploring options. The development and implementation of the model is based on collective design principles whereby a group of experts (field researchers, modellers and practitioners) contribute iteratively to the creation process. In the process of developing the model, stakeholders participate in the process, reflecting on available data, notions of the system structure and function. This process can produce new insights and information about data gaps. The model itself, once constructed, can then be used to test various policy scenarios that are of direct interest to the policy makers.

Aside from the field work described in separate projects as noted above, the modelling team has continued developing its hardware and software. The current Beta version of our Multi-Agent Based Simulation (MABS) platform is implemented in Java, using the Open Source software RePAST. The modelling platform can be either deployed as a Virtual Machine on independent computers or directly accessed through the internet (interactive portal). Issues related to the dynamical links with Google-Map are being addressed and we have developed procedures for users to populate the maps with sites of interest: hospitals, police stations, residential treatment centres. Charts & plots menus have been added as well. In this way, the user-interface for DPMP models is being progressively upgraded.

More information:

pascal.perez@anu.edu.au

Examining the relative cost effectiveness of different types of law enforcement interventions directed towards methamphetamine

Research team: Alison Ritter, David Bright, Jenny Chalmers and Caitlin Hughes

Overview:

Law enforcement interventions against methamphetamine can occur at any level of the supply chain:

End product manufacture off-shore
Precursor importation
End product importation
Domestic precursor attainment
Domestic manufacture
Domestic distribution

Where should law enforcement invest its resources? This project aims to both detail the methamphetamine supply chains and assess the returns on investment for law enforcement. The project is a macro-level analysis that will provide comparisons of the economic consequences of law enforcement on criminals and criminal networks at each level of the supply chain. The research will be conducted in two parts: (1) a detailed description of methamphetamine supply chains, and (2) modelling the economic consequences of different law enforcement interventions. Data for the first part of the project will be sourced from published and grey literature, judges’ comments in methamphetamine cases, interviews with key informants (KIs) from policing, and interviews with incarcerated offenders who have knowledge of methamphetamine importation, manufacture, or high level distribution.

Expected completion date: December 2009

More information:

david.bright@unsw.edu.au

A comparative analysis of research into illicit drugs in the European Union

Research team: Alison Ritter and Francis Matthew-Simmons

Overview:

This brief project forms part of a large analysis undertaken by the European Commission on the state of illicit drug research across Europe. The analysis of illicit drug research across Europe includes examining the structures for research prioritisation, the funding mechanisms, topics of research undertaken and the level of investment. The European Commission wished to have three comparison countries for their analysis – USA, Canada and Australia. The DPMP was invited to prepare the research report for Australia. We have documented the history of Australian illicit drug research, the funding structures, the topics researched and the strategic processes for illicit drug research.

More information:

alison.ritter@unsw.edu.au

The influence of drug prices on the patterns of drug consumption of methamphetamine users

Research team: Jenny Chalmers, Craig Jones, Don Weatherburn and Deborah Bradford

Interviewing Assistants: Colleen Faes, David Bright, Caitlin Huges, and Rachel Ngui

Overview:

After cannabis, methamphetamine is the second most used illicit drug on a lifetime basis in Australia. Supply control efforts that aim to reduce the demand for methamphetamine by making drug transactions more risky and the retail price higher are not without criticism. In response to price increases methamphetamine users may not reduce their consumption. Even if they do reduce their consumption of methamphetamine they may increase consumption of other drugs: a significant number of methamphetamine users are poly-drug users. To date very little is known about the responsiveness of methamphetamine users to price changes. A growing body of overseas literature has used behavioural economics techniques to explore such issues. Following their lead this project will survey approximately 100 methamphetamine users, asking them to make hypothetical purchases of a range of drugs (including methamphetamine, heroin, cocaine, cannabis and alcohol) based on a price list and a drug budget. Holding the drug budget constant the prices of heroin and methamphetamine will be varied, one at a time, to explore the relationships between price and consumption. Important covariates may be the levels of dependence on methamphetamine and heroin and drug use experience.

Expected completion date: March 2009

More information:

jenny.chalmers@unsw.edu.au

Exploring socio-demographics and drug use

Research team: Jenny Chalmers

Overview:

The aim of this project is to explore the relationships between socio-demographics and patterns of illicit drug use. The research is based on analysis of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS), a population survey representing nine repeated cross-sections covering 22 years from 1985 to 2007. The project will advance in two stages. Firstly, the repeated cross-sectional nature of the data will be exploited to construct pseudo-cohorts, enabling a thorough analysis of the changing nature of drug use over the last two decades. Subsequently, the evolving patterns of drug use will be compared with the socio-demographic background of drug users and socio-economic conditions in Australian society more broadly.

Expected completion date: June 2009

More information:

jenny.chalmers@unsw.edu.au

Policy Practice Projects

DPMP is conducting ‘policy practice projects’. These projects involve dealing with immediate issues confronting Australian policy-makers. Policy practice means engaging directly with policy-makers and providing policy support on specific issues with which they are grappling.

Over the five years of DPMP, we will complete at least one Policy Practice Project with each jurisdiction. The outputs of the policy practice projects will depend on the nature of the problem that the jurisdiction is grappling with, but may include written or verbal policy advice to the organisation in question, a model, literature reviews and so on. Policy practice projects will be publicly disseminated as appropriate.

The aims of the Policy Practice projects are:

To provide policy support
To apply policy research findings
To evaluate DPMP tools and methods as they are used in practice
To improve the Australian policy processes and quality of decisions

NSW Police

Project title: Identifying current and alternate police options for intervening with MDMA

Research team: Caitlin Hughes and Alison Ritter

NSW Police Collaborator: Fiona Christian

Overview:

There is a lack of knowledge about the offending profiles of MDMA offenders. Data from the Ecstasy and related Drugs Reporting System (EDRS) suggests MDMA users are not a criminally active population, but at the same time rates of reported police incidents involving MDMA in NSW are increasing. This project aims to identify current and alternate police options for intervening with MDMA offenders. It will use the NSW Police database to examine the nature of MDMA offending in NSW (and a comparative group of cannabis offenders). Then it will use a literature review and interviews with NSW Police officers to identify and explore the feasibility and desirability of adopting alternate evidence-based policing options for intervening with MDMA offenders in NSW.

Expected completion date: June 2009

More information:

caitlin.hughes@unsw.edu.au

ACT Health

Project title: Consultation and modelling in relation to the ACT AOD treatment service system

Research team: Alison Ritter, Pascal Perez and Jen Badham

ACT Health: Helene Delaney

Overview:

The ACT is currently in an environment of change. A recent review of treatment services for alcohol and drug dependency has provided some guidance about treatment structures and functions for the ACT. In addition, a new prison will open later in 2008 that will provide drug treatment interventions and there is significant attention to ‘throughcare’ – which will mean ensuring effective links and pathways between the prison and community-based drug treatment services. DPMP is working with the ACT to develop an ACT-specific drug services system model. With a finite set of treatment services, locations and a closed population, it is possible to model the movement of drug users /offenders /clients through the system over time. The model would represent drug users/offenders/clients as ‘agents’ who move around the system according to simple rules driven by existing data. The costs of service provision can also be built into the model. Likewise, measures of harm such as overdose or infection rates can be built in if data exist that can be used as reasonable proxies. The model can also be built on a geographically accurate representation of the ACT: using mapping software, the placement of the services and the likely movement of agents around the model can then be modelled.

More information:

alison.ritter@unsw.edu.au

Victoria Police

Project title: The development of a Harm Index for use by Victoria Police

Research team: Alison Ritter

Victoria Police: Amelie Hunter

Overview:

The Victoria Police are in the process of developing a Drug Harm Index. The purpose of their Index is to inform strategic policing at a local command level. The Index will quantify the harm from illicit drug use and drug-related crime, and will identify (at a local command level) drug types and drug offences causing most harm. The goal is to provide an ongoing measurement tool to track changes over time. The DPMP is engaged as consultants on the project: providing advice on methods, data sources and reviewing documentation.

More information:

alison.ritter@unsw.edu.au

Queensland Police and Queensland Health

Project title: Building a Queensland Cannabis Diversion Model

Research team: Caitlin Hughes and Michael Lodge

Queensland Health: Stephen Anstis and Carol Read

Queensland Police: Murray Ryan and Gabrielle Webb

Overview:

Queensland has adopted a comprehensive system of police and court diversion for cannabis users. This includes the police diversion program for minor cannabis offenders, illicit drugs court diversion program for other minor illicit drug offenders and Queensland Magistrate Early Referral into Treatment program. There are a number of questions that now arise about the future directions of the Queensland diversion system. In conjunction with Queensland Health and Police DPMP will build a Cannabis Diversion Model for the Queensland context. The model will incorporate the costs and outcomes of the current system and the likely costs and outcomes if Queensland were to modify its existing system.

More information:

caitlin.hughes@unsw.edu.au

WA Police

Project title: Modelling policies for licensed venues in Perth

Research team: Pascal Perez, Alison Ritter, Michael Lodge, Anne Dray and Michael Livingston

Overview:

The Western Australia Police (Alcohol and Drug Coordination Unit) and the Drug and Alcohol Office are jointly interested in exploring policy questions centred on licensed premises and related violence. The two institutions have been collecting venue-based data for some time now and it is felt that this provides a rich source from which to develop a comprehensive and sophisticated model. Having licensed premises as the unit of analysis is something of a departure from the core focus of DPMP work, however there are a number of policy issues around illicit drug use that can logically be explored. Following preliminary contacts established by Alison Ritter, a meeting was held, in May 2008, with WA Police and the Drug & Alcohol Office. After an overall presentation of DPMP, discussions focused on priority areas where modelling could support policy-making processes. The objective is to explore through simulated scenarios the consequences of contrasted policies for licensed venues.

More information:

michael.lodge@unsw.edu.au

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