The Surveillance and Evaluation Program for Public Health

Personnel | Surveillance | Reports | Peer-reviewed publications | Modelling | Software

The Surveillance and Evaluation Program for Public Health (SEPPH) monitors the pattern of transmission of HIV, viral hepatitis, and specific sexually transmissible infections in Australia, assesses past and expected epidemic trends, and evaluates the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of public health intervention strategies and programs. SEPPH also evaluates HIV epidemics and develops research capacity in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Surveillance activities are conducted in collaboration with the Australian Commonwealth Government Department of Health and Ageing, State and Territory health authorities and collaborating networks. Analyses and interpretation of recent trends in new diagnoses of HIV, viral hepatitis and STIs, and estimates of prevalence and incidence in key population subgroups are published in our Annual Surveillance Report. Public release datasets on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses are also available for download. SEPPH, of the National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, is a collaborating unit of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. SEPPH carries out extensive mathematical modelling research in order to evaluate public health programs, understand drivers of epidemic trends, project future epidemic trajectories, and assess the potential impact of public health strategies. This research is focused on HIV, viral hepatitis, and sexually transmissible infections in Australian populations and on HIV/AIDS in the Southeast Asia and Pacific region. This evaluation is often extended to health economic analyses of different programs or interventions. SEPPH is also involved in building research capacity in the areas of epidemiology, biostatistics, mathematical modelling, and other biomedical research associated with HIV/AIDS in Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

	David Wilson BSc, BInfTech, BAppSc(Hons), GradCert(Biostats), PhD Head and Associate Professor David Wilson is Head of the Surveillance and Evaluation Program for Public Health. Research interests include understanding HIV transmission risk, monitoring the trends, understanding the drivers, and forecasting the future trajectories of HIV, viral hepatitis and STI epidemics, along with evaluating public health programs and interventions. dwilson@nchecr.unsw.edu.au +61 (0)2 9385 0959 or +61 (0) 421 598 939
	Ann McDonald - BSc, MPH Senior Research Officer Ann McDonald is the senior research officer responsible for coordinating national surveillance activities. This includes communicating with each Australian jurisdiction, collating data on diagnoses of HIV, viral hepatitis, and STIs, and analysing trends in notifications. She has specific interest in analysing HIV trends and exploring new techniques for detection of early infection. amcdonald@nchecr.unsw.edu.au
	Louise Causer MBBS, MSc, DTM&H Lecturer Louise Causer has interests and experience in developing research capacity in public health in Southeast Asia. She is currently coordinating training and research capacity in Indonesia and Cambodia in various areas of public health, including epidemiology, biostatistics, and medical research. Louise is currently on maternity leave. lcauser@nchecr.unsw.edu.au
	Lei Zhang BSc (Adv Hons), MSc, PhD, MPH Lecturer Lei Zhang obtained his PhD in the University of New South Wales investigating interaction between HIV and CD4+ T cells using macaque models. He had a postdoctoral position on bioinformatics at Humboldt University, Berlin, and has recently been working with the MRC in Uganda on HIV in children. Currently, he is involved in epidemiological studies of HIV/AIDS epidemic in China, which aims to understand the pattern of the epidemic and inform health policies in China. lzhang@nchecr.unsw.edu.au 02 9385 0869
	Richard Gray BSc, PhD Lecturer Richard Gray is interested in the dynamics of infectious diseases, modelling of HIV and STI transmission, impact of interventions on disease propagation, application of quantitative medicine to public health, complex networks and brain dynamics. He is currently evaluating the HIV epidemic in Papua New Guinea and the interaction of specific STIs on HIV transmission. rgray@nchecr.unsw.edu.au
	Melanie Middleton BMedSc, MPH HIV Surveillance Officer Melanie Middleton is a research assistant working in surveillance of blood-borne viruses and sexually transmissible infections (STIs). Current work includes assisting with national HIV/AIDS surveillance, monitoring populations at high and low risk of HIV infection and coordinating surveillance of viral hepatitis and STIs. mmiddleton@nchecr.unsw.edu.au
	James Jansson BTeach, BSc(Hons) Administrative and Research Assistant James Jansson is an administrative assistant to A/Prof Wilson and to SEPPH. In addition, he is carrying out some research work on HIV transmission patterns and antiretroviral treatment pathways jjansson@nchecr.unsw.edu.au
	Kel Heymer PhD Student Kel Heymer is interested in developing mathematical models of HIV transmission that are applied in settings of SE Asian populations. She is currently working on evaluating the HIV epidemic in Cambodia. kheymer@nchecr.unsw.edu.au
	Alex Hoare PhD Student Alex Hoare is interested in modelling the HIV epidemic in SE Asia, specifically the emergence of ARV drug resistance. He also has expertise in developing software for analysing models and developing computer models for HIV and other infectious disease epidemics. ahoare@nchecr.unsw.edu.au
	Amy Kwon BSc (Applied Mathematics) PhD student Amy Kwon completed her Bachelor degree in UNSW, completed her honours degree with modeling formation of Amyloid-beta plaques in Alzheimer’s disease. She is under David Wilson’s supervision, modeling infectious disease transmission among injecting drug users in Australia and modeling HIV transmission in Indonesia. Interests include applying mathematics to HIV in Southeast Asia, with special focus on transmission among injecting drug users, and forecasting epidemic trajectories. akwon@nchecr.unsw.edu.au +61 2 9385 0993
	Karen Schneider PhD student Karen Schneider is working on HIV transmission dynamics and addressing questions associated with clinical management, minimizing drug resistance, and public health prevention of HIV in Thailand. kschneider@nchecr.unsw.edu.au
	Ben Hui BE(computer engineering), MBiomedE Postdoctoral fellow (affiliation with Biostatistics and Database Program)
	Charisse Farr Masters student Charisse Farr is interested in understanding key drivers of the HIV epidemic in the Philippines and informing policy to ensure HIV levels remain low. Charisse.farr@gmail.com

	Return on investment 2: Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of needle and syringe programs in Australia 2009
	National Gay Men’s Syphilis Action Plan Phase A Technical Report. Wilson, Prestage, Donovan, Gray, Hoare, McCann, Down (2009)
	Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia. Wilson, Gray, Heymer, Hoare, Kwon, Thein, Worth, Kaldor (2009)
	Mathematical models to investigate recent trends in HIV notifications among men who have sex with men in Australia. Wilson, Hoare, Regan, Wand, Law (2008)

Surveillance Publications
Dore GJ, McDonald A, Li Y, Kaldor JM, Brew BJ for the National HIV Surveillance Committee. Marked improvement in survival following AIDS dementia complex in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy. AIDS 2003; 17: 1539 - 1545

Becker NG, Lewis JJC, Li Z and McDonald A. Age-specific back-projection of HIV diagnosis data. Statistics in Medicine 2003; 22: 2177 - 2190

McDonald AM, Li Y, Dore GJ, Ree H and Kaldor JM for the National HIV Surveillance Committee. Late HIV presentation among AIDS cases in Australia, 1992 – 2001. Aust N Z J Public Health 2003; 27 (6): 608 - 613

Graves N, Walker DG, McDonald AM, Kaldor JM and Ziegler JB. Would universal antenatal screening for HIV infection be cost-effective in a setting of very low prevalence? Modelling the data for Australia. Journal of Infectious Diseases 2004: 190; 166-174

Nakhaee F, McDonald A and Law M. A feasible method for linkage studies avoiding clerical review: linkage of the national HIV/AIDS surveillance databases with the National Death Index in Australia. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health 2007; 31: 308 - 312

Guy RJ, McDonald AM, Bartlett MJ, Murray JC, Giele CM, Davey TM, Appuhamy RD, Knibbs P, Coleman D, Hellard ME, Grulich AE, Kaldor JM. HIV diagnoses in Australia: diverging epidemics within a low prevalence country. MJA 2007; 87 (8): 437 – 440

Guy RJ, McDonald AM, Bartlett MJ, Murray JC, Giele CM, Davey TM, Appuhamy RD, Knibbs P, Coleman D, Hellard ME, Grulich AE, Kaldor JM. Characteristics of HIV diagnoses in Australia, 1993 - 2006. Sexual Health 2008; 5 (2): 91 - 96

Jin F, Prestage GP, McDonald A, Ramacciotti T, Imrie JC, Kippax SC, Kaldor JM and Grulich AE. Trend in HIV incidence in a cohort of homosexual men in Sydney: data from the Health in Men study. Sexual Health 2008; 5(2): 103 – 107

Middleton MG, Grulich AE, McDonald AM, Donovan B, Hocking JS and Kaldor JM. Could sexually transmissible infections be contributing to the increase in HIV infections among men who have sex with men in Australia. Sexual Health 2008; 5 (2): 131- 140

Giles ML, McDonald AM, Elliott EJ, Ziegler JB, Hellard ME, Lewin SR and Kaldor JM. Variable uptake of recommended interventions to reduce mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Australia, 1982 - 2005. MJA 2008; 189 (3): 151 – 154

Murray JM, McDonald AM and Law MG. Rapidly ageing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in Australia. Sexual Health 2009; 6: 83 – 86

McDonald AM, Zurynski Y, Wand HC, Giles ML, Elliott EJ, Ziegler JB, Kaldor JM. Perinatal exposure to HIV among children born in Australia, 1982 – 2006. MJA 2009; 190: 416 - 420

Nakhaee F, Black D, Wand H, McDonald A and Law M. Changes in mortality following HIV and AIDS and estimation of the number of people living with diagnosed HIV/AIDS in Australia, 1981 – 2003. Sexual Health 2009; 6

Sullivan PS, Hamouda O, Delpech V, Geduld JE, Prejean J, Semaille C, Kaldor J, Folch C, Op de Coul E, Marcus U, Hughes G, Archibald CP, Cazein F, McDonald A, Casabona J, van Sighem A, Fenton KA and the Annecy MSM Epidemiology Study Group. Reemergence of the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in North America, Western Europe and Australia 1996 – 2005. Ann Epidemiol 2009; 19: 423 - 431

Evaluation of Programs Publications

J.A. Kwon, J. Iversen, L. Maher, M.G. Law, D.P. Wilson. (2009) The impact of needle and syringe programs on HIV and HCV transmissions in injecting drug users in Australia: a model-based analysis. J AIDS, 51(4):462-469.

HIV Epidemic Evaluation Publications

R.T. Gray, D.P. Wilson. (2009). Anal sex need not be highly prevalent to affect HIV incidence among heterosexual populations. STI Online, 22 October 2009. http://sti.bmj.com/cgi/eletters/85/6/411#987

D.P. Wilson. (2009). Promoting HIV screening and voluntary counselling and testing as important public health interventions. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. S15.

H. Wand, D.P. Wilson, P. Yan, A. Gonnermann, A. McDonald, J. Kaldor, M. Law. (2009) Characterizing trends in HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Australia by birth-cohorts: results from a modified back-projection method. Journal of the International AIDS Society, 12:19-.

D.P. Wilson. (2009) Data are lacking for quantifying HIV transmission risk in the presence of effective antiretroviral therapy. AIDS, 23:1431-1433.

D.P. Wilson. (2009) Universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate antiretroviral therapy. The Lancet, 373:1077-1078.

D.P. Wilson. (2009) Modelling based on Australia HIV notifications data suggests homosexual age-mixing is primarily assortative. J AIDS, 51(3):356-360.

D.P. Wilson, A. Hoare, D.G. Regan, M.G. Law. (2009) Importance of promoting HIV testing for preventing secondary transmissions: modelling the Australian HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men. Sexual Health, 6:19-33.

D.P. Wilson, M.G. Law, A.E. Grulich, D.A. Cooper, J.M. Kaldor. (2008). HIV transmission under highly active antiretroviral therapy – Authors’ reply. The Lancet, 372:1807.

Blower SM, Wilson DP, Coplan PM, Wainberg MA. (2008). Response to ‘Predicting the unpredictable real world impact of ARV-based microbicides’. PNAS, 105(44):E74.

Wilson DP, Law MG, Grulich AE, Cooper DA, Kaldor JM. (2008). Relation between HIV viral load and infectiousness? A model-based analysis. The Lancet, 372:314-20.

Wilson DP, Coplan PM, Wainberg MA, Blower SM. (2008). The paradoxical effects of using antiretroviral-based microbicides to control HIV epidemics. PNAS, 105 (28):9835-40.

Wilson DP, Coplan PM. (2008). Mathematical models and health economic aspects of microbicides. Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS, 3: 587-592.

Hoare A, Wilson DP, Regan DG, Kaldor J, Law MG (2008). Using mathematical modelling to help explain the differential increase in HIV incidence in New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland: the importance of other STIs. Sexual Health, 5:169-187.

Wilson DP, Blower SM. (2007). How far will we need to go to reach HIV-infected people in rural South Africa? BMC Medicine, 5:16-.

Wilson DP, Kahn JO, Blower SM. (2006). Predicting the epidemiological impact of antiretroviral allocation strategies in KwaZulu-Natal: The effect of the urban-rural divide. PNAS, 103(38):14228-14233.

Wilson DP, Blower SM. (2006). Rational choices for allocating antiretrovirals in Africa: treatment equity, epidemiological efficiency and feasibility. PLoS Medicine, 3(3):410-411.

Kaldor J, Worth H, Henderson K, Law M, McKay M, Warner B, Razali K. Impacts of HIV/AIDS 2005-2025 in Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and East Timor. Final Report of the HIV Epidemiological Modelling and Impact Study. Canberra: Australian Government. AusAID; February 2006.

Wilson DP, Blower SM. (2005). Allocating Antiretrovirals in South Africa: Using Modeling to Determine Treatment Equity. PLoS Medicine, 2(6):563-564.

Wilson DP, Blower SM. (2005). Designing Equitable Antiretroviral Allocation Strategies in Resource-Constrained Countries. PLoS Medicine, 2(2):132-141.

Wilson DP, Bodine EN, Smith RJ, Blower SM. (2005). Response to Foss et al., 'Care should be taken when promoting microbicide use among sex workers who are able to use condoms consistently'. AIDS, 19(17):2044-2046.

Smith RJ, Bodine EN, Wilson DP, Blower SM. (2005). Evaluating the potential impact of vaginal microbicides to reduce the risk of acquiring HIV in female sex workers. AIDS, 19:413-421.

Wilson DP, Blower SM. (2004) Microbicides: Anti-HIV Efficacy and Ethics. Science, 206 (5703):1890.
Clements MS, Prestage G, Grulich A, Van de Ven P, Kippax S, Law MG. (2004). Modeling trends in HIV incidence among homosexual men in Australia 1995-2006. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr, 35:401-406.

Murray JM, Law MG, Gao Z, Kaldor JM. (2003). The impact of behavioural changes on the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C among injecting drug users. Int J Epidemiol, 32:708-714.

Law MG, Prestage G, Grulich A, Van de Ven P, Kippax S. (2002). Modelling HIV incidence in gay men: increased treatment, unsafe sex and sexually transmissible infections. AIDS. 16:499-501.

Law MG, Prestage G, Grulich A, Van de Ven P, Kippax S. (2001). Modelling the effect of combination antiretroviral treatments on HIV incidence. AIDS. 15:1287-1294.

HIV Virology and Immunology Modelling Publications

Orr Y, Wilson DP, Taylor JM, Bannon PG, Geczy C, Davenport MP, Kritharides L. (2007). A kinetic model of bone marrow neutrophil production which characterizes late phenotypic maturation. Am J Physiol Regul Integr Comp Physiol., 292 (4):R1707-1716.

Wilson DP, Mattapallil JJ, Lay M, Zhang L, Roederer M, Davenport MP. (2007). Estimating the infectivity of CCR5-tropic SIVmac251 in the gut. Journal of Virology, 81 (15): 8025-8029.

Davenport MP, Ribeiro RM, Zhang L, Wilson DP, Perelson AS. (2007). Understanding the mechanisms and limitations of immune control of HIV. Immunological Reviews, 216:164-175.

Wilson DP, Zhang L, Ribeiro RM, Perelson AS, Davenport MP. (2005). Explaining mechanisms behind the virus-specific CD8+ T lymphocyte response to a viral infection. Tissue Antigens, 66 (5):590-591.

Wilson DP, McElwain DLS. (2002). A Mathematical Model of Continuous HIV Mutations Eluding Immune Defence. Journal of Theoretical Medicine. 4(4): 241-249.

Chlamydia Evaluation Publications

D.P. Wilson, J.A. Whittum-Hudson, P. Timms, P.M. Bavoil. (2009) Kinematics of intracellular chlamydiae provide evidence for contact-dependent development. Journal of Bacteriology, 191:5734-5742.

D.G. Mallet, K.J. Heymer, R.G. Rank, D.P. Wilson. (2009) Chlamydial infection and spatial ascension of the female genital tract: a novel hybrid cellular automata and continuum mathematical model. FEMS Immunology & Medical Microbiology, 57:173-182.

R.T. Gray, K.W. Beagley, P. Timms, D.P. Wilson. (2009) Modeling the Impact of Potential Vaccines on Sexually Transmitted Chlamydia Epidemics. Journal of Infectious Disease, 199:1680-1688.

C. Tan, R.C. Hsia, H. Shou, C. Haggerty, C. Gaydos, D. Dean, A. Scurlock, D.P. Wilson, P.M. Bavoil. (2009) Chlamydia-trachomatis-infected patients display variable antibody profiles against the nine-member polymorphic membrane protein family. Infection and Immunity, 77(8):3218-3226.

D.P Wilson, A.K. Bowlin, P.M. Bavoil, R.G. Rank. (2009) Ocular pathology elicited by Chlamydia and the predictive value of quantitative modelling. Journal of Infectious Disease, 199:1780-1789.

D.G. Regan, J.S. Hocking, D.P. Wilson. (2009). Use of mathematical modeling to inform chlamydia screening policy decisions – Authors’ reply. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 199:768-769.

Regan DG, Wilson DP, Hocking JS (2008) Coverage is the key for effective screening of Chlamydia trachomatis in Australia. Journal of Infectious Diseases under review. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 198:349-58.

Hoare A, Timms P, Bavoil PM, Wilson DP. (2008). Spatial constraints within the chlamydial host cell inclusion predict interrupted development and persistence. BMC Microbiology, 8:5-.

Peters J, Wilson DP, Myers G, Timms P, Bavoil PM. (2007). Type III Secretion à la Chlamydia. Trends in Microbiology, 15 (6):241-251.

Wilson DP, Timms P, McElwain DLS, Bavoil PM. (2006). Type Three Secretion, contact-dependent model for the intracellular development of Chlamydia. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 68:161-178.

Wilson DP. (2004). Mathematical Modelling of Chlamydia. Proceedings of Computational Techniques and Applications, ANZIAM Journal, 45:C201-C214.

Wilson DP, Mathews S, Wan C, Pettitt AN, McElwain DLS. (2004). Use of a Quantitative Gene Expression Assay based on Micro-array Techniques and a Mathematical Model for the Investigation of Chlamydial Generation Time. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 66:523-537.

Wilson DP, McElwain DLS. (2004). A model of neutralization of Chlamydia trachomatis based on antibody and host cell aggregation on the elementary body surface. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 226(3):321-330.

Wilson DP, Timms P, McElwain DLS. (2003). A mathematical model for the investigation of the Th1 immune response to Chlamydia trachomatis. Mathematical Biosciences. 182(1) :27-44.

Mallet D, Heymer K, Wilson DP. (2007). A novel cellular automata-partial differential equation model for understanding chlamydial infection and ascension of the female genital tract. Proc. Appl. Math. Mech., 7:2120001-2120002.

Other Relevant Publications

D.G. Regan, D.P. Wilson. (2008). Modelling sexually transmitted infections: less is usually more for informing public health policy. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 102:207-208.

A. Hoare, D.G. Regan, D.P. Wilson. (2008). Sampling and Sensitivity Analyses Tools (SaSAT) for Computational Modelling. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, 5:4-.

Wilson DP. Mathematics is applied by everyone except applied mathematicians. Applied Mathematics Letters, 22:636-637.

Wilson DP. (2007). Australian migration policy of HIV-infected individuals requires renewed discussions. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 31 (4):385-386.

Wilson DP. (2007). Analysis and Approximation for Solving Highly Coupled Master Differential Equations of Receptor Interactions. World Applied Sciences Journal, 2 (2):81-89.

Wilson DP, McElwain DLS. (2005). Diffusion theory can be applied to antibodies attaching to ligand sites. ANZIAM Journal, 46:495-505.

Wilson DP. (2003). Concentration of cell receptors is more important in effecting binding reactions than cell receptor affinity. Australian Mathematical Society Gazette. 30(2) :82-85.

Wilson D. (2001). Book Review of "Virus dynamics: Mathematical Principles of Immunology and Virology" by Martin A. Nowak and Robert M. May. Australian Mathematical Society Gazette. 28(4):219-220.

Software

Sampling and Sensitivity Analyses Tools (SaSAT) Software for Computational Models Download SaSAT version 1.01 (32-bit version, with MCR installer - 265Mb) Download SaSAT Version 1.01 (64-bit version, with MCR installer - 159Mb) Download SaSAT version 1.01 (32-bit version, without MCR installer - 3Mb) What is MCR Installer Download User Guide and installation instructions (1Mb) Download scientific manuscript accompanying software (2Mb) Contact us if you would like us to send you a CD with the software and for the free password to unzip the downloaded program Troubleshooting